Do You Agree with Ducker?
Survey Results for 07/21/2010:
What do you think of Ducker's market projections?
They are too optimistic.
They sound about right.
They are too pessimistic.
So perhaps Ducker's contention that we will return to pre-crisis levels by 2013 is a little aggressive for most of our readers. A solid majority weighed in this week to indicate that they thought Ducker's projections were too optimistic. A tiny 2 percent of folks actually thought, on the other extreme, that Ducker was too conservative in its projections.
Here's some of what I heard this week:
"It will take up to five years before a meaningful turn around in growing door and millwork business to even half of what we had in 2006," says one respondent. "Optimism is super but planning for reality is what makes businesses have successful returns on investments. People will get back to building when mortgage money is available from the banks and the government stays out of the [business of] 'throw[ing] the money away' without investing in the housing industry. Remodel business will carry us the next 3+ years.
"We have grown 25 percent this year," the writer continues, "but only due to fact we are taking market share from other competitors and servicing better than our competitors. We expect more customers to close and possibly some competitors as material volume is not enough for all businesses to survive the next three years with enough profitability to satisfy investors. Only those willing to look at long-term returns will stay in this slow trend back to a healthy industry growth."
Yet there are those who have learned from years of experience that Ducker is often worthy of one's attention and consideration. "I've been using Ducker research since the 1980's and they've been pretty
good, not exact, but always in the ballpark," writes another voter. "The facts that convinced me that their forecast is on track is the Harvard study, which says almost the same thing, so two very good research groups came up with basically the same information independently, or very close to the same. I will also say that our customers/sales followed the historical trends that Ducker used almost exactly for the last five years."
And it seems that I'm not the only one with an optimistic nature. "I will also add that it's about time we start hearing and believing some good news," the writer continues. "If we all think the economy is going to stagnate or get worse, guess what, it will. Positive attitude can do wonders to more achieve more."
I couldn't agree more.