Growth is Flat, says Inaugural Window and Door Survey
The inaugural Window and Door Market Survey, conducted in conjunction with Window + Door and John Burns Research and Consulting, shows return to normal seasonal demand conditions in 3Q23 following years of continued strong demand post-COVID as backlogs have been worked through and lead times decline.
JBREC analyzed survey data and qualitative commentary to discern four key takeaways from the survey:
- Input costs for labor and materials remain elevated. Materials are up 4% YOY and direct labor up 20%.
- Year-over-year volume has decreased. Volumes decreased by an average of 2% YOY. Revenue, meanwhile, increased 7.2%.
- Lead times for materials are greatly reduced. 29% of companies reported no extended lead times on input materials. Over three-quarters of companies reported more than 75% of their active projects are on schedule.
- Price increases are expected for 2024. Companies anticipate raising prices by 4.9% in 2024. Increasing costs for labor and materials is driving much of the pricing increase.
The Window and Door Market Index (WDMI) is 51.4, indicating normal demand for window and door products. A rating above 50 indicates industry growth; a rating below 50 signals slowing activity. 4Q23 revenue is expected to decline slightly from typical seasonal demand softness.
Despite declining volumes, window and door companies report similar demand conditions for residential products in single-family new construction, repair and remodel and multifamily. JBREC anticipates multifamily demand will decline. Affordability concerns around higher interest rates will likely weigh on demand for single-family new construction and bigger ticket remodeling projects.
Material and supply chain continues to stabilize. Nearly 30% of companies report normalized lead times across raw material inputs. Float glass, insulating glass units and hardware/components still have extended lead times for 14% of respondents.
Companies indicate they'll prioritize production automation, footprint expansion and energy efficiency in the coming 12 months. Respondents noted production automation is a direct response to rising labor costs. As homeowner awareness of energy efficiency increases, window and door manufacturers focus more on energy code changes and product improvements around energy performance.