Household Growth to Increasingly Feel the Impacts of the Immigration Drop

The sharp drop in immigration that began in 2025 contributed only modestly to the slowing of household growth in that year, but, according to Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies' new analysis, the effects will likely be larger in 2026 and 2027. Examining historical data, we find that while many immigrants form households in their year of arrival, most of their net household formation occurs one to two years after they enter the country. This suggests that the impact of the 2025 immigration downturn on household growth will become more pronounced in 2026 and 2027, especially if immigration declines further as projected. Rough estimates indicate that the impact will grow from about 75,000 fewer households formed by immigrants in 2025 to nearly 500,000 fewer by 2027.